Buhari’s Death: Tinubu’s Second- Term Under Threat – Analysts

 The recent death of former presi­dent, Muhammadu Buhari, whose Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) bloc formed a formidable part of the All Progressives Congress (APC) has exposed a dangerous un­derbelly of the ruling party, and that is that its powerbase is a resentful North now ever determined to move on, having lost its anchor and only re­maining raison d’etre for remaining in the APC. 

In separate interviews with Sun­day Independent, political analysts expressed the view that the North, which contributed a large chunk of Tinubu’s votes due to Buhari’s connection, has largely been shortchanged in political appointments and elsewhere, now being dominated by Tinubu’s South-West, thus becoming estranged from the govern­ment of the day.

 Already, some of the CPC stalwarts like Nasir el-Rufai have dumped the APC and are now with the coalition under the African Democrat­ic Congress (ADC).

Speaking with Sunday In­dependent, Julius Adegun­na, a media executive and public affairs analyst, main­tained that indeed Tinubu may not find things easy in the North following Buhari’s death.

He stated, “It may make things tougher for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in his efforts to win the hearts of the north in 2027.

“This is because the late ex-President Muhammadu Buhari would have been able to stand in the gap and mo­bilise for him where things would have proved difficult.

“As things are now, the political weight, person­ality and influence of Mr. President will be tested. Of course, as an acknowledged political grandmaster, we will be seeing how he weath­ers the storm.

“This is not enough to write President Tinubu off in the scheme of politics in the north. Being a grassroots person, he still has many of his faithful in that part of the country.

“Let us hope that nothing untoward happens between him and his vice, Kashim Shettima, and other pow­erful interests in the north before the election.

“He will surely need the support of Aisha Buhari and the late ex-President’s imme­diate family.”

Dr Bolaji O. Akinyemi, an­other public affairs analyst, in an interview with Sunday Independent prayed that may the burial of Buhari not be that of President Bola Tinubu’s political relevance in the core north.

Dr. Akinyemi, Chairman, Board of Trustees (BoT), Project Victory Call Initia­tive, aka PVC Naija, and Con­vener, The Apostolic Round­table (ART), stressed: “The CPC bloc is the ideological core of Buhari’s northern base of 12 million votes.

“Their increasingly feel­ing of alienation under Tinubu’s Southern-led APC is of public knowledge. This disaffection may fracture APC’s northern coalition, weakening its dominance in the region.

“Without Buhari’s uni­fying influence, the party risks losing its northern grip to emerging northern alliances, or opposition par­ties like the New Nigerian Peoples’ Party (NNPP) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), especially if Tinubu fails to urgently reconcile with CPC loyal­ists and northern political heavyweights.

“The 2027 elections may witness a realignment with a possible Northern-led Third Force reshaping Nigeria’s political landscape and chal­lenging APC’s hold on power.

“The claim of Aisha Bu­hari to her husband’s last words to Nigerians is a very strategic communication at this time, but it is left to those who will manage it, bearing in mind the perception that the First Lady’s role, as with all women in the North, are in the ‘other rooms’.

“It may strip Aisha of the influence that statement was meant to serve. The game is on for the best politician to have come out of Southern Nigeria. I wish President Tinubu well.”

Bishop Herbert Eke­chukwu, a cleric and public affairs commentator, who also spoke to Sunday In­dependent, said President Bola Tinubu as an incum­bent president under APC received the presidency from Buhari, therefore may inherit some of Buhari’s 12 million block votes, depend­ing on his performance and connection with North.

Dr Ekechukwu, an econ­omist, stated: “The North under Tinubu’s adminis­tration has so far come out with strong criticisms over perceived marginalisation of the region and the alleged sidelining of Vice President Kashim Shettma. This will altogether affect Tinubu’s chances in 2027.

“Abuhakar Atiku, being a Northern Fulani, like the late Buhari, will attract sympathy from Buhari’s sup­porters and from northern irredentists, who will want power to return to the North.

“Atiku has been actively seeking to consolidate his northern support. His expe­rience and knowledge of the situation and region make him a powerful contender.

“Peter Obi’s continuous rising political profile, with his message of capacity, ac­countability, competency, character and prudence, especially among the youth, including Buhari’s base, may have the ability to swing and share northern votes, espe­cially in the North Central and North East.

“Another determinant factor is the Vice President Kashim Shettima. It has been alleged that President Bola Tinubu may drop him in the 2027 election and may replace him with Senator Rabiu Kwakwanso.

“The direction Shettima will go also will affect where the swing votes will go.

“However, the following factors may largely deter­mine the outcome of the 2027 presidential election: Voters’ turn-out, increased partici­pation, especially among youth and first timers, will determine the outcome of the 2027 election.

“The various coalitions, alliances and realignments from now till 2027 will speak volumes. Remember that 2027 is still a bit far from now and several factors may change before then.

“Though President Bola Tinubu has failed woefully to deliver economic successes and fight insecurity and in­surgency, if he will quickly address the current econom­ic hardship, insecurity and perceived marginalisation, the table will turn around in his favour and he will coast home to victory as a result of voters’ sympathy.”

Dr Kalu Ofon Emmanuel, a human rights promoter, stated: “Yes, l will emphati­cally say that with the death of former President Mu­hammad Buhari, the APC will definitely lose its grip of the North, especially as the CPC block, which is Buhari’s people and followers, seems to be on the way out of the APC, and now fraternising with the ADC.

“The reality is that the ex­pectations of the North have been grossly undermined and they are not happy with President Bola Tinubu-led administration.

“When your boss takes you to an organisation and you are no longer comfort­able with the affairs of the organisation, there may be a need to leave.

“There is no longer trust between the CPC block and the Tinubu’s camp. With transparent and succinct evidence that you now feel marginalised, you will defi­nitely find your way out.

“Apparently, you were still there because of the influ­ence of your boss. When he dies, it becomes an opportu­nity to stage an exit.

“This is my overview of what is about to happen un­less President Tinubu can, be­tween now and next year, con­vince the North that he still has their interests at heart.

“How he will do it, only him and members of his kitchen cabinet can deter­mine that. We are keeping our fingers crossed, watch as the events unfold as we march towards 2027. It will be very interesting.”