The much anticipated 2027 general election is shaping up to be one of the most challenging contests for the opposition, as President Bola Tinubu-led All Progressives Congress, APC, continues to gain dominance across key states.
While the Tinubu-led APC is busy capturing the dynamic structure of more populated regions, the opposition, on the other hand, is struggling to unite behind a single candidate, with internal divisions and defections weakening their chances.
Although the African Democratic Congress, ADC, a party housing the coalition of opposition leaders, was formed to challenge Tinubu’s re-election bid, the party is currently facing significant hurdles, especially as supporters of presidential aspirants continue to clash over who should fly the party’s ticket.
Similarly, the relatively unending crisis rocking some political parties including the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, and the Labour Party, has continued to pave the way for defection of key party stalwarts into the ruling party.
Continuous defection
Since late 2025 till date, the rank of opposition parties has continued to deplete following the decision of several state governors to move into the ruling party alongside lawmakers and local government chairmen.
As at May 2023 when President Tinubu’s administration was inaugurated, the ruling party was controlling about 21 states while the opposition had 15.
However, currently, the ruling party now has 29 governors, leaving the opposition with just seven states.
While the PDP is still controlling five states, the All Progressives Grand Alliance, APGA, Labour Party, LP and Accord Party, AP, have one each.
Mass defection in Kano
Kano has always been a very crucial state in Nigerian elections as it is often referred to as Nigeria’s “political nerve centre”.
This is not unconnected to its electoral landscape that has nearly six million registered voters who are ever ready to change the game with their Permanent Voters Cards, PVCs.
DAILY POST reports that both the opposition and the ruling party have been battling for the state’s political structure until on Friday when the state governor, Abba Yusuf dumped the New Nigerian Peoples Party, NNPP for APC.
In the 2023 election, out of the 5,921,370 registered voters, NNPP with Rabiu Kwankwaso as its flagbearer, overwhelmingly defeated Tinubu with 997,279 votes, while the APC managed to score 517,341 votes.
Although some political analysts believe that with Governor Abba Yusuf’s defection to the APC, President Tinubu may garner larger votes in 2027, others, however, believe that Kwankwaso’s cult-like supporters will flush APC out of the state.
There are indications that Kwankwaso may also align with the coalition of opposition leaders ahead of the election.
Crack in opposition
There is a brewing internal crisis within the ADC that could possibly have negative impacts on the opposition’s chances in the 2027 elections.
DAILY POST reports that ADC, a party adopted by the coalition of opposition figures, is currently facing disagreements among its prominent members, including former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, former governor of Anambra State, Peter Obi, and former Rivers State Governor, Rotimi Amaechi, over who should have the party’s presidential ticket.
Supporters of the aspirants are pushing for their preferred candidates, with some, particularly Obi’s supporters, advocating that the ticket should be zoned to the South.
A faction of the party led by Nafiu Gombe is also a threat to the success of the party in the coming election.
According to Enejo Micheal, a chieftain of the party in Benue State, who spoke with DAILY POST on Saturday, “President Tinubu is responsible for the crisis in all the opposition parties”.
He said the administration of Tinubu “deliberately weakened the opposition so that members will defect to the ruling party”.
“They have created a faction within ADC too. You will see what will happen if a person like Peter Obi that they fear so much wins the ADC ticket later this year.
“Tinubu and his people will sponsor those claiming to be the real owner of ADC and afterwards, they will look for how the court will disqualify our candidate.
“But no matter the strategy, I don’t see Tinubu winning the election next year. There is no crisis in ADC that can’t be handled. People like David Mark are very experienced politicians, they know the game.
“I notice that Obidients and supporters of Atiku have been clashing on social media, no need for that. Nobody is going to use dollars to buy delegates in ADC. We are appealing to leaders to adopt direct primary and I bet you, Obi will win the ticket”, he said.
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