Former Senate President Bukola Saraki is engaged in discreet discussion with contacts within the presidency as he weighs another attempt to reclaim political influence in Kwara State, according to several people familiar with the discussions.
The contacts, described by two senior political figures, as ongoing, reflect a strategic recalibration by Saraki after consecutive electoral setbacks in his home state.
Saraki, who played a central role in the coalition that helped Muhammadu Buhari defeat Goodluck Jonathan in 2015, later emerged Senate president against the wishes of his party, a move that triggered a rift with the leadership of the APC.
The fallout led to his defection back to the PDP, but he was unable to replicate his earlier political success when he attempted to help Atiku Abubakar defeat Buhari in 2019, losing both his national influence and his long-held grip on Kwara.
In the run-up to the 2023 elections, Saraki urged his supporters to return to grassroots mobilization. Despite early momentum, his PDP lost all contested positions in the state to the APC.
“After two election cycles contesting against a ruling party at the centre, there is a recognition that the path back requires a different approach,” one party source said.
Quiet contacts in Abuja
Several people familiar with the matter said Saraki has now, in recent months, strengthened contacts in the presidency and taken on informal political assignments that have brought him closer to President Tinubu.
The nature of those assignments could not be independently verified, but multiple sources described them as confidence-building steps.
“He has been given a number of sensitive political tasks in recent months, and he delivered on most of them,” one source said. “That has strengthened trust in him at the seat of power.”
“He has rebuilt trust in key quarters,” another person with knowledge of the interactions said. “The conversations are not about defection, but about making concessions.”
“He has tried twice to win Kwara without federal backing and fell short,” one source said. “His view is that he still has enough local support to win, but what he wants now is a level playing field. The expectation is that Abuja stays neutral.”
Calculations for 2027
Such an arrangement, if it materialises, could create an unusual political dynamic in Kwara, where rival parties might converge in support of Tinubu’s expected reelection bid while still competing locally.
“We may end up seeing both APC and PDP working for Tinubu’s return in 2027 in Kwara,” one source said. “It would then be left to each party to field strong candidates at the state level. Anybody who fields a weak candidate and relies on federal power in 2027 will be losing out big time.”
Same sources dismissed the strength of alternative platforms in the state. “The ADC is not seen as a major threat. The figures there lack the structure to win any election, and they have explained this to the power that matters in Abuja.”
Concerns about security in Kwara have also featured in discussions, according to one person familiar with the matter.
“The security situation in Kwara is raising concerns in Abuja. There is a feeling in some quarters that it has not been handled as effectively as it should be.”
Saraki’s recent public remarks made his position clear. In an interview, he ruled out a presidential bid in 2027 and argued that the South should complete two terms.
“I’m not contesting in 2027 because I believe it is only fair that the South, which took the presidency in 2023, is allowed to complete its term in 2027. By 2031, there will be no ambiguity for those of us from the North,” he said.
Sources in the ruling party, who spoke to The Informant247, framed the position as direct support for President Tinubu’s re-election.
“If you understand the politics, that position effectively supports Tinubu’s reelection. Without a strong or any PDP presidential candidate, it becomes easier to separate federal and state strategies.”
Another Saraki associate pointed to shifting alliances within the opposition.
“He is now seen as closer to people within the PDP that are more accommodating to the president,” the person said, referring to Nyesom Wike. “That PDP bloc is also currently negotiating with the president to see if he will leave some states to them.”
This, sources say, aligned perfectly with Saraki’s plan.
Publicly, a controversial comment by Olarewaju Sulaiman, director general of the National Institute for Legislative and Democratic Studies, first laid bare Saraki’s political lining.
Speaking on a radio program in Ilorin, Sulaiman disclosed that Saraki is aligned with the APC in Abuja while remaining in the PDP in Kwara.
“Both APC and PDP in Kwara could end up working for Tinubu’s reelection in 2027. It would then be up to each party to field strong candidates, as no one would be able to rely on federal backing,” one source said, adding that discussions remain ongoing and no final decision has been reached.
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