When former Senate President and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) leader, Bukola Saraki, met Senator Saliu Mustapha, the senator representing Kwara Central at the Tunde Idiagbon International Airport in Ilorin, the encounter immediately attracted attention.
Though the circumstances of the encounter were described as a chance meeting and that they ran into each other accidentally, coming against the backdrop of growing contacts between Saraki’s camp, the PDP and members of the aggrieved APC bloc popularly known as the G-15 many did not believe the explanation.
The G-15 comprises other top APC governorship aspirants like Ambassador Yahaya Seriki, Bashir Bolarinwa, Senator Oloriegbe and Alhaji Muyideen Salako among others and is now known as ‘The Otoge Progressives (TOP)’.
The development has emerged as one of the most significant political calculations ahead of the 2027 elections in the state.
Sources familiar with the negotiations said the recent approval by the PDP to Saraki to engage the aggrieved APC leaders and its replication at an event in Ilọrin last week marks the climax of the secret engagements.
A source close to the group said the discussions were being driven by the need to bring together politicians and groups opposed to the present political arrangement in the state.
“The discussion is going towards working together because we cannot leave our state to the governor. For now, no amount of sacrifice is too big to make to rescue our state. We have to work together with all the interested groups”, the source added.
He said all the parties are expected to have a clearer picture of the proposed arrangement before November, with a major announcement expected latest on Friday, stressing that all sides would have to make sacrifices.
A PDP insider who doesn’t want the name in print because of the sensitivity of the matter, confirmed that the party’s decision to authorise Saraki to engage the G-15 followed earlier conversations between the two sides.
“We are having conversations and understanding which prompted the directive of the party to talk with them. We have our group and they have their own group and all of them are talking. And there is over 80 per cent of its workability”, the source said.
The source, however, stressed that the discussions had not yet produced a final agreement saying the major issue now is the terms of the proposed political partnership.
According to the source, the G15 has asked for political concessions covering the Senate, House of Representatives and State House of Assembly, while the two sides are examining which positions the PDP can realistically concede.
Another PDP source said the positions on the table, include two senatorial seats, three House of Representatives seats and 10 State Assembly seats.
According to an APC party member involved in the process, “the G15 side has a team comprising former Commissioner for Water Resources, AbdulMumini Katibi, Senator Sulieman Ajadi, Elders Caucus chairman Christopher Ayeni and former Senator Yahaya Oloriegbe, who leads the team”, among others.
The Saraki team, it was reliably gathered, “is being led by former PDP national chairman Alhaji Kawu Baraje, with former Kwara State Speakers Razak Atunwa and Ali Ahmad among those involved”.
A member of the G15 and former governorship aspirant, Alhaji Muyideen Salako confirmed the meetings during a telephone chat with our correspondent.
He argued that a possible alliance between the G15 and the PDP in Kwara would not necessarily amount to opposition to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu at the national level, insisting that the president had little to lose from such an arrangement.
He said the group would continue to support Tinubu while working with the PDP to challenge the APC in the state, arguing that the PDP is unlikely to field a presidential candidate in 2027.
He, however, said the preferred option would have been a resolution of the crisis within the APC adding that the group has not ruled out any option in the negotiation, including over the governorship and other elective positions.
He also disclosed that another bloc of aggrieved politicians, identified as the G100, was monitoring the discussions.
But while the negotiations with PDP have gained momentum, Salako made it clear that the G-15 had not completely shut the door on reconciliation within APC.
He said many of the aggrieved politicians would have preferred to resolve their differences within the ruling party but were pushed towards the opposition by the failure of the party leadership to undertake genuine reconciliation.
“If their permutation is right and they win, they are likely to return to the APC, including Saraki. That is likely on the card,” he submitted.
For several of the politicians, according to Salako, another electoral setback could significantly diminish their influence in Kwara politics with insinuations that many of them would be “retired” and prevented from contributing to the development of the state if the Governor carries the day.
This, they say, partly explains why the possibility of working with Saraki has become attractive despite their complicated political history.
For Saraki, the development presents an opportunity to rebuild a broad political coalition without personally contesting an elective position.
The G15’s political weight could therefore provide Saraki and PDP with an opportunity to broaden their reach beyond the party’s traditional base.
But whether that could translate into votes is another question.
Professor Hassan Saliu, President of the Nigerian Society of International Affairs and Professor of Political Science and International Relations at the University of Ilorin, said the governor’s body language suggests he remains confident in his ability to deliver the APC governorship candidate, Yakubu Danladi.
“Looking at the body language of the governor, he seems to be very sure of delivering his candidate, Danladi. Can he do it? Will he not be able to do it? I don’t know. But that is the picture one is getting.”
He also warned opposition politicians not to underestimate the national structure of APC ahead of 2027.
While agreeing that the PDP may have the advantage with the alliance, Saliu also warned against assuming that the movement of aggrieved APC politicians would automatically translate into victory for PDP.
Apart from senator Saliu Mustapha, he noted that several other politicians in the PDP are also believed to have interests in the Senate, including former House of Representatives members who recently joined the party after falling out with the governor, Moshood Mustapha. He said there are indications Ali Ahmad is also said to be eyeing the seat.
Checks by Daily Trust revealed that Yinka Otukoko, ABS Director of Project, is the PDP’s Kwara Central senatorial candidate whose name is in the INEC portal.
However, Otukoko while responding to a post by an APC Kwara South senatorial aspirant, Nurudeen Adeyemi, on the popular WhatsApp platform, Kwara Commission, hinted he was only a placeholder.
“My ticket is for either Saliu Mustapha of G15 or Moshood Mustapha”, he wrote. Party sources said the issue will be resolved with the best interest of the party and the G15 taking priority.
Analysts say if Senator Mustapha gets the PDP ticket, he could potentially face Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq in the senatorial election.
State Publicity Secretary of the PDP, Olusegun Adewara, has already started posting and praising Senator Mustapha on his social media handles.
He told Daily Trust on Thursday that “The party is big enough to accommodate everybody. We are in talks with the G-15 and at an advanced stage. Asked who gets the senatorial ticket, the party’s spokesperson said “We have not gotten to that stage but it’s the party elders and stakeholders that will determine that when the time comes. But discussion is ongoing”, he submitted.
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