The Osun State governorship election holds this Saturday and the stakes are expectedly high, ADEOLU ADEYEMO, in this report examines the major factors, particularly defections across party lines that may likely shape the outcome of the poll
Five days to the August 15 governorship election in Osun State, the contest among Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Political Party, All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, Asiwaju Bola Oyebamiji, and African Democratic Congress (ADC) candidate, Dr Najeem Salaam, has entered its decisive phase.
But beyond campaign rallies, endorsements, defections and the competing claims of the three camps, one factor is increasingly standing out in the final political arithmetic: the movement of influential politicians and their networks across party lines.
The 2026 election is therefore not simply a contest between three candidates. It is also a test of how much of the political machinery built over decades can be transferred from one camp to another — and how much of it remains loyal to old political identities.
Among the most consequential movements in recent weeks has been the decision by a number of prominent figures associated with the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to openly support the APC candidate, Oyebamiji.
The list includes former Osun Governor, Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola; former PDP National Deputy Secretary for the South-West, Alhaji Tajudeen Oladipo; and former Secretary to the Osun State Government under Oyinlola, Alhaji Fatai Akinbade, among other PDP chieftains and political actors who have recently declared support for the APC candidate.
Their movements are significant not merely because of their individual political profiles, but because each has, at different times, occupied positions from which political structures, relationships and grassroots networks were cultivated.
The question confronting the PDP camp and, more broadly, Adeleke’s political establishment is whether these movements will translate into measurable changes at ward and polling-unit levels.
For the APC, the equally important question is whether the newly acquired political capital can be successfully integrated into its existing structure rather than remaining at the level of elite endorsement.
The Oyinlola Factor: An old PDP network re-enters the APC equation
Oyinlola’s alignment with Oyebamiji carries a symbolism that goes beyond the former governor’s personal standing.
As a former governor elected on the PDP platform, Oyinlola remains associated with a period when the party possessed a formidable statewide political organisation.
His political value to the APC lies partly in the relationships built during his years in government and party politics, particularly among former office holders, local political operators and sections of the old PDP establishment.
However, the movement should not be interpreted as an automatic transfer of every former PDP supporter to APC. Political networks are rarely monolithic.
Some former associates may follow Oyinlola; others may have developed independent loyalties, while younger political actors may be more responsive to the current candidates and issues than to the political relationships of a former governor.
For Oyebamiji, therefore, Oyinlola’s importance may lie less in the number of people who publicly follow him and more in his ability to help reopen political channels in areas where APC needs additional strength.
For the PDP-aligned camp, the negative effect is equally clear: the party loses the symbolic and organisational value of having a former governor who once represented its governing structure.
Tajudeen Oladipo and the PDP’s old south-west network
The movement of Alhaji Tajudeen Oladipo to the Oyebamiji camp adds another dimension.
As a former PDP national officer with South-West responsibilities, Oladipo’s political experience extends beyond a single local government.
His value to the APC is therefore potentially organisational: knowledge of party structures, relationships with political actors and familiarity with the internal workings of the opposition’s traditional network.
For the APC, such figures can provide bridges into political constituencies that may not be easily reached through conventional campaign structures.
But, again, the real test is not the announcement of support.
It is whether those relationships can produce votes.
The former PDP structures may have weakened, changed hands or become fragmented since the years when the party dominated Osun politics. Consequently, Oladipo’s political value in 2026 will ultimately be measured by his capacity to influence the new political environment rather than by his former party position alone.
Fatai Akinbade: Another old political network for Oyebamiji
The support of Alhaji Fatai Akinbade, a former Secretary to the State Government under Oyinlola, further strengthens the APC’s attempt to draw prominent figures from the old PDP establishment into its fold.
Akinbade is associated with a political generation that participated directly in government and party organisation.
His movement is therefore another indication that the political boundaries separating the old PDP establishment from the present APC coalition are becoming increasingly blurred. For Oyebamiji, the attraction is obvious.
The APC already has a statewide structure. The addition of experienced political actors from another tradition could broaden the party’s reach, particularly where local relationships matter more than formal party labels.
The possible loss to the former camp is the erosion of experienced intermediaries who understand how politics operates below the level of public rallies.
From Aregbesola’s Camp to Adeleke’s Accord: The ADC problem
Perhaps more complicated is the movement of some political figures and diehard supporters historically associated with former Governor Rauf Aregbesola away from his political camp and towards Adeleke’s Accord platform.
This development is particularly significant because Aregbesola’s political organisation was once regarded as one of the strongest grassroots machines in Osun politics.
The ADC’s strategy had been closely associated with Aregbesola’s political influence, particularly because Salaam himself emerged from the political tradition around the former governor.
The movement of some of those supporters especially, his former Secretary to the State Government (SSG), Alhaji Adeoti towards Adeleke introduces an unexpected complication.
It potentially weakens the assumption that Aregbesola’s old network will move as a single political bloc behind the ADC candidate.
For Accord, the value of such defectors lies in their familiarity with the political terrain, especially in wards and communities where the old Aregbesola network once operated effectively.
They may provide Adeleke with local contacts, campaign knowledge and access to voters who had previously been difficult for the PDP — and now Accord — to penetrate.
But their impact should not be overstated.
A political activist who changes party does not necessarily carry every former supporter along.
The more important question is whether these individuals can rebuild their former networks under a new political identity.
For the ADC, however, the negative implication is potentially more serious.
If supporters identified with Aregbesola begin appearing openly in the Accord camp, it could create uncertainty among voters who had regarded the former governor’s political machinery as a major component of Salaam’s candidacy.
It may also complicate the ADC’s attempt to distinguish itself as the principal alternative to both Adeleke and APC.
Omisore: When the Followers Move but the Leader Remains
The case of Senator Iyiola Omisore presents perhaps one of the most intriguing political paradoxes in the election.
While a number of political followers associated with Omisore have reportedly moved towards Accord, the former deputy governor himself remains with the APC.
That situation creates a different kind of political problem for the APC.
Omisore’s continued presence gives the APC an experienced political figure with a long history of electoral mobilisation in Osun.
But, if portions of the network historically associated with him are moving away, the issue becomes whether the political influence of the leader remains intact when some of the followers no longer share his present political direction.
The APC therefore faces a dual calculation.
On one hand, retaining Omisore preserves the value of his experience, contacts and political history.
On the other hand, the departure of some of his followers could indicate that personal political networks have become less hierarchical than they were in previous elections.
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This is one of the clearest reminders that 2026 may be an election in which political followers are no longer moving automatically with political godfathers.
For Accord, attracting members of Omisore’s old political network could be useful in areas where the former senator once possessed influence.
For APC, however, the concern is whether such defections represent isolated movements or the beginning of a broader erosion of its local structures.
The Defection Factor Is Bigger Than the Names
The significance of the current defections should therefore not be judged by the number of prominent names alone.
There are three levels to every political defection.
The first is the symbolic value.
A former governor, former national party officer or former senior government official crossing political lines can influence public perception and create the impression that the political tide is moving in a particular direction.
The second is the organisational value.
A defector may bring ward leaders, campaign coordinators, former appointees, community influencers and long-established relationships.
The third — and most important — is the electoral value.
Can all of those relationships actually deliver voters at polling-unit level?
That is the question that cannot be answered at campaign rallies.
The 2022 Map Still Matters — But It Is No Longer Enough
In the 2022 governorship election, Adeleke, then the PDP candidate, polled 403,371 votes and won 17 of the state’s 30 local governments, while the APC candidate, Gboyega Oyetola, scored 375,027 votes and won 13 councils.
But the 2026 election is being fought under an entirely different political configuration.
Adeleke has moved from PDP to Accord.
Oyebamiji is contesting for APC with the party’s established statewide structure.
Salaam is running on the ADC platform with the benefit of a political tradition associated with Aregbesola.
Meanwhile, prominent politicians from different political backgrounds have been changing camps.
Consequently, the 2022 map can serve as a reference point, but not as a ready-made prediction.
OSUN WEST: HOME ADVANTAGES AND NEW ALLIANCES
Osun West remains central to Adeleke’s strategy because of his stronghold in Ede and the broader political networks around the district.
Ede North — Adeleke’s Fortress
Adeleke won Ede North in 2022 with 23,931 votes against APC’s 9,603.
The council remains one of Accord’s most important expected strongholds.
The APC’s objective is unlikely to be simply to defeat Adeleke in Ede North. Its more realistic challenge is to reduce the margin sufficiently to compensate for losses elsewhere.
Ede South — Strong Adeleke Territory
Adeleke secured 19,438 votes against APC’s 5,704 in 2022. The council remains another area where Accord will expect a substantial advantage.
Egbedore, which is seen as competitive, Adeleke in 2022 won 13,230 votes against APC’s 9,228.
The smaller margin makes Egbedore more vulnerable to changes in local alliances.
Ejigbo — Salaam’s Test
Adeleke won Ejigbo in 2022 with 18,065 votes against APC’s 14,355.
The emergence of Salaam as ADC candidate changes the calculation.
His greatest challenge is to convert personal popularity and political structures into enough votes to overcome Adeleke’s previous advantage.
Irewole — Oyebamiji’s Home Territory
APC won Irewole in 2022 with 18,189 votes against Adeleke’s 14,216.
Oyebamiji’s connection to Ikire gives APC an obvious home advantage, although Adeleke has also sought to strengthen his presence in the council.
Ayedaade, Iwo, Ayedire and Ola-Oluwa
These councils remain important to APC’s West strategy. Ayedaade produced a narrow APC victory in 2022, while Iwo also went to APC by a small margin.
Ayedire and Ola-Oluwa produced clearer APC advantages.
The emergence of ADC means, however, that even councils historically favourable to APC cannot be treated as politically sealed.
OSUN CENTRAL: WHERE SMALL MARGINS COULD BECOME BIG
Osogbo and its surrounding councils may be particularly important because of population size, urban visibility and the concentration of political structures.
Osogbo.
Adeleke won Osogbo in 2022 with 30,401 votes against APC’s 22,952.
The capital remains a major target for all three camps.
Accord will seek to protect its advantage; APC will attempt to close the gap; ADC will seek to establish enough support to disrupt the two-party arithmetic.
Adeleke won with 21,350 votes against APC’s 18,709.
In 2026 however, while Accord is seen as having an advantage, but APC remains competitive.
Ifelodun, Odo-Otin and Orolu
These councils were all decided by relatively small margins in 2022.
That makes them particularly susceptible to changes generated by defections, local alliances and turnout.
The 2026 reading is competitive.
Boripe — The Defection Test
Boripe remains one of APC’s strongest historical areas.
In 2022, APC secured 21,205 votes against Adeleke’s 7,595.
But the movement of former APC figures, including political actors linked to the Oyetola-era structure, into Accord has provided the governor’s camp with an opening.
The important question is not whether such defections have occurred.
It is whether they have sufficiently penetrated the ward and polling-unit structures to reduce APC’s historical advantage.
2026 reading: APC retains structural strength, but Accord has made an important political incursion.
OSUN EAST: THE DISTRICT THAT COULD COMPLICATE THE ARITHMETIC
Osun East contains several councils where the APC and Adeleke camps were separated by relatively narrow margins in 2022.
Ife Central and Ife South remain important APC territories, while Ilesa East also favoured APC.
Ife North, Ilesa West, Atakunmosa East and Oriade are more difficult to classify because of their narrower historical vote margins.
The emergence of ADC adds another variable.
If Salaam succeeds in attracting a substantial share of voters who might otherwise have divided between APC and Accord, the result could alter the winner’s margin even where he does not win the council.
WHO BENEFITS MOST FROM THE POLITICAL REALIGNMENTS?
The answer is not straightforward.
Adeleke’s advantage
Accord benefits from incumbency, Adeleke’s personal following and the movement of some politicians and former supporters from rival camps into his political structure.
The movement of some Aregbesola-linked supporters and Omisore-associated followers towards Adeleke could provide useful local networks outside his traditional base.
The danger is that too much emphasis on defections could create an illusion of strength if those political figures cannot deliver polling-unit votes.
Oyebamiji’s advantage
APC possesses the broadest formal party structure of the three camps.
The recent support from Oyinlola, Oladipo, Akinbade and other political figures from the old PDP establishment gives Oyebamiji another layer of political experience and grassroots relationships.
The challenge is integration.
Can the APC convert the new alliances into votes without creating friction between old party structures and new entrants.? That is the question.
Salaam’s advantage
Salaam has a recognisable political identity, a strong Ejigbo connection and access to a political tradition that has previously demonstrated substantial grassroots mobilisation.
But the ADC faces perhaps the most delicate defection problem.
If influential figures associated with Aregbesola move towards Accord, the party must demonstrate that the former governor’s political network remains sufficiently intact to matter.
THE REAL COST OF DEFECTIONS
For the party losing a politician, the damage can take several forms.
There is the loss of visibility, because a prominent figure is no longer campaigning under the party’s banner.
There is the loss of local intelligence, because experienced politicians often understand the strengths and weaknesses of wards and communities.
There is the loss of mobilisation capacity, particularly where the defector previously coordinated grassroots structures.
And there is the psychological effect.
When prominent politicians leave shortly before an election, supporters may begin asking whether the political tide is turning.
But there is also a limit to the damage.
Political parties have increasingly become larger than individual personalities. A defection can weaken a structure without necessarily destroying it.
That is why the final judgment on the current movements must wait until votes are counted.
THE 30-LGA BATTLEFIELD
Based on the 2022 results and the political movements visible ahead of the 2026 election, the councils can broadly be grouped into three categories.
Accord’s stronger areas: Ede North, Ede South, Osogbo, Olorunda, Egbedore, Irepodun, Ila, Obokun and parts of Ilesa West and Atakunmosa West,
APC’s stronger areas: Irewole, Ayedaade, Ayedire, Ola-Oluwa, Boripe, Ifelodun
Major battlegrounds: Ejigbo, Isokan, Iwo, Ifelodun, Odo-Otin, Orolu, Boluwaduro, Ife North, Atakunmosa East,Ife Central, Ife East, Ife South and Ilesa East and Oriade.
This classification, however, should be regarded as an analytical reading rather than a prediction.
THE FINAL FIVE-DAY TEST
With 30 local governments, 332 wards and 3,763 polling units, the election is now moving from the era of endorsements to the era of execution.
The three candidates have spent months building alliances. They have attracted defectors. They have secured endorsements. They have attacked one another’s records. They have promised voters different futures.
But election day will ask a much simpler question:
Which political camp can convert its claimed support into actual votes?
For Adeleke, the challenge is to protect the strongholds that produced his 2022 victory while preventing APC and ADC from cutting into his margins.
For Oyebamiji, the task is broader: preserve APC’s traditional strongholds, reduce Adeleke’s advantages in the West and Central districts, and ensure that the recent influx of PDP figures and other political actors produces tangible grassroots gains.
For Salaam, the challenge is perhaps the most difficult. He must prove that ADC can transform its political realignments, Aregbesola-linked network and grassroots appeal into enough votes to break the Adeleke-APC contest.
And this is where the defection story ultimately becomes more important than the headlines announcing each movement.
The real question is not who defected. It is what followed them.
Did they move with ward leaders?
Did they move with polling-unit coordinators?
Did they move with voters?
Or did only the political personalities change camps?
The answer to those questions may determine whether the current defections become a footnote in Osun’s 2026 election history or one of the defining forces behind the final result.
With the final voter register standing at 2,339,233, the decisive battle is no longer being fought principally on campaign stages.
It is being fought quietly across wards, polling units and communities — where political loyalty will finally be measured not by applause, endorsements or defections, but by the ballot.
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